Lies, damned lies, and statistics

Some people hate that Texas elects its judges.  Some like it.  I've always been a fan of a nonpartisan type of election, where only lawyers could vote for judges.  I know.  Somewhere, Alexander Hamilton is smiling at my elitist view.  What can I say?

But, since we have elections the way we do, it provides for great conversation at the courthouse.  Here in Tarrant County, the local bar association has a habit of conducting Judicial Candidate Qualification Polls.   I truthfully have no idea how scientific this year's poll is, but what the hell.  

Of course, there are only two contested criminal court races this year, despite the fact that there are technically 17 judicial elections.  Criminal District Court Number 3 and the newly-created 432nd District Court both have two candidates vying for the Republican spot in the general election against the typical Tarrant County Democratic candidate.  No one.

The Judicial Qualification Poll is sent to members of the Tarrant County Bar Association.  The poll was open to 2248 members, and 704 members actually voted.  In case you're wondering.  That's about 31 percent of the eligible members took time out of their very busy day to vote in a poll about the qualifications of judicial candidates.

In Criminal District Court Number 3, current judge Elizabeth Berry has decided not to seek reelection.  The two candidates looking to replace Judge Berry are current prosecutor Robb Catalano and current defense attorney Santiago Salinas.  Catalano's website is here, and Salinas' site is here.

According to the poll, of the 704 attorneys that voted, only 355 cast a vote regarding Catalano and only 302 voted in reference to Salinas.  The type of vote that could be cast fell into one of three categories; Not  Qualified, Qualified, or Well-Qualified.  (I added the missing hyphen, if you're wondering).

Salinas garnered about 16% Not Qualified, 40% Qualified, and 44% Well-Qualified.  In other words, over 80% of the attorneys that voted believe Salinas to be at least qualified to sit as a criminal court judge.  Not bad numbers.

Catalano however received less than 5% Not Qualified votes.  Additionally, he received 37% Qualified votes and 58 % Well-Qualified.  That's 95% of the attorney voters believe Catalano is at least qualified to be the next judge of Criminal District Court Number 3.  

With respect to the newly-created 432nd District Court, the candidates are sitting judge Ruben  Gonzalez and criminal attorney/ family law attorney Tom Zachry.  The website of Judge Gonzalez can be found here, while Mr. Zachry's is here.  (Just as an aside, I like the judge's website the best.  Very nice.  Flashy.  Reminds me of another tremendous law firm website.)

According to the all-important Judicial Candidate Qualification Poll, only 282 eligible voters cast a ballot regarding Judge Gonzalez and 349 voted regarding Mr. Zachry. 

Of those that voted for Judge Gonzalez, about 15% voted him Not Qualified, whereas Mr. Zachry received about 11% of the Not Qualified votes.  Judge Gonzalez received 40% Qualified and 46% Well-Qualified votes.  Mr. Zachry received 40% and 50% of Qualified and Well-Qualified votes respectively.  

So it would seem the attorneys voting in this poll far and away believe Robb Catalano to be the most qualified successor to Judge Berry in CDC3, whereas it would seem to be a dead heat to decide whether the recently-appointed Judge Gonzalez gets to keep his job on the bench, or whether longtime attorney Tom Zachry will ascend to the bench.

So the people who are presumably the most-knowledgable have spoken.  Will it hold true on election day?  I will put the over/ under on a Catalano win at 19 points, and I'll be taking the over.  As for the 432nd, I think we could witness quite a close election.  I predict a Gonzalez victory, but I think it could easily be within 5 points.

But then again, what the hell do I know?

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All states should have elections for judges. Although an elected official may appoint the judge in states other than Texas, it is not the same as having the people who may one day be in front of that judge elect him (or her). These qualification polls may make it easier for the voters who don't pay attention to what's going on in the courts to decide who to vote for. Although I, too, would be skeptical about the polls.

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